Shap Shots

Shap Shots

Let's chat about Jason Robertson and his value

Some thoughts on the biggest deal for the Stars this summer.

Sean Shapiro's avatar
Sean Shapiro
May 20, 2026
∙ Paid

I’ve intentionally taken some time to stop and think about the Dallas Stars and Jason Robertson.

As a quick refresher, the Stars top-scoring forward, who had 96 points this season, is a restricted free agent coming off a four-year deal that paid him $7.75 million per season.

He’s the franchise-record holder for points in a season by any player since the franchise moved to Texas, with 109 points a few years back, and this past postseason, where the Stars fell to the Minnesota Wild, Robertson was the Stars most consistent forward.

Robertson also has arbitration rights, which the Stars will want to avoid, and this is the final season he can sign an eight-year deal before the NHL CBA changes.

As my pal Kyle Stich from AFP Analytics put it last week when he joined Robert Tiffin and I on Algorithmically Incorrect Hockey, Robertson is a restricted free agent that the Stars should really treat as a UFA.

Kyle also has Robertson’s contract projection at $12 million per season over eight years, and when making their projections AFP Analytics does their best to find the middle range of the projection.

User's avatar

Continue reading this post for free, courtesy of Sean Shapiro.

Or purchase a paid subscription.
© 2026 Sean Shapiro · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture