On college goalies, contracts, and the potential virtue of patience
Let's look at some college goalie news and look at how it all connects.
There was pretty big news in the goalie prospect world on Tuesday after Trey Augustine informed the Detroit Red Wings he wouldn’t be signing a professional contract and would return to Michigan State for his junior season.
While it’s not been officially confirmed, we’ve heard similar rumblings about Jacob Fowler’s decision at Boston College — that the Montreal Canadiens prospect will return to BC for his junior season.
At the same time, the New York Rangers signed undrafted free agent Callum Tung out of Connecticut despite the goalie only having played 15 career NCAA games.
I think it’s a good time chat about collegiate goalies, signing contracts, and the pros and cons of both.
Let’s start with Tung, who just two years ago was playing in the BCHL as a 21-year-old.
Tung posted a .933 save percentage and 10-4-1 record for UConn this season. He was quite good in the NCAA tournament, stopping 59 of 63 shots in two games.
There were several NHL teams in attendance closely watching him at that regional, and for a goalie like Tung, his stock may never be higher.
For Tung, returning to college for his sophomore season puts him at risk of cratering or tanking his value. If the long-term plan is to play pro hockey, for undrafted free agents signing an ELC as soon as possible is the best chance at job security.
But for Augustine and Fowler, highly-touted goalie prospects with draft pedigree, there’s value in waiting. The Red Wings and Canadiens, while they’d like them to turn pro now, the decision isn’t going to hurt them in the long-term — in Detroit’s case, honestly, it might help them with Augustine’s entry-level contract being pushed back another year.
It reminds me of what happened when I covered the Dallas Stars and they had two goalie prospects that were putting up elite collegiate showings during the 2017-18 season.
Jake Oettinger finished his sophomore season with a .915 save percentage at Boston University, he by all accounts looked NHL ready. At the same time Colton Point finished his sophomore season at Colgate with a .944 save percentage.
Both were backups that years for their countries at the World Junior Championships and for Stars fans at the time, there was a dream of the eventual tandem of Point and Oettinger in Dallas.
Today, Oettinger is the Stars undisputed No. 1 goalie. Point hasn’t played since the 2022-23 season, when he posted a .851 save percentage in 11 ECHL games with the Fort Wayne Komets.
I think it’s important to study why those two paths divulged and where things changed for Point and Oettinger.
Point rushed out of college after his sophomore season, and he did so with a bit of hubris from his sophomore season at Colgate and some pressure to get ahead of Oettinger on the depth chart.
Point even told me at the time, one of the reasons he signed was to beat Oettinger in the race to pro minutes and eventually beat him out for the Stars No. 1 job.
Oettinger, the higher-profile prospect, decided to return to Boston University for his junior season. He wanted one more run at college glory and was happy with the No. 1 job and chance to work on his game at Boston University.
Oettinger made his decision based on himself, rather than worrying about anyone else and it turned out pretty well for him.
That’s the example that comes to mind for me when I look at what’s happening with Augustine and going back to Michigan State.
Augustine, by my view, is probably ready for the pro game. He showed it last year at the IIHF World Championships, but is happy to spend another year at Michigan State to work on his game and chase the one amateur trophy missing from his résumé.
He’s not overly worried about whether Sebastian Cossa does this or that, and there’s not been a forced rush to beat the Red Wings other top goalie prospect to pro opportunities.
Trey Augustine is worried about Trey Augustine, nothing more and nothing less. And a decision made in haste, right or wrong, can have rough results.
I don’t know Fowler as well as Augustine, but if he’s leaning toward returning to Boston College for a junior season, it’s probably coming from a similar mindset — what’s best for Jacob Fowler, not necessarily what’s best for anyone else.
And for their respective organizations, Montreal and Detroit, there’s some patience required here. But it’s patience that can ultimately pay off since both goalies will be bona fide No. 1s as juniors, and neither will likely go back for a senior season.
I can’t remember the first person to say this to me, but I’ve heard this from multiple NHL goalies and goalie scouts in the past — when it comes to goalie development, no one was ever hurt by spending an extra year in college.
Just some food for thought. Enjoy your Tuesday.