On the Red Wings and how a risk-aversion identity only takes you so far

Some thoughts after the Red Wings lost to the Edmonton Oilers 3-2 in overtime on Sunday.

Leon Draisaitl scored 18 seconds into overtime, finishing off a pass from Mattias Ekholm to give the Edmonton Oilers a 3-2 win against the Detroit Red Wings on Sunday.

After the game, because it was his 29th birthday, Draisaitl was presented with a trio of cupcakes during a television interview, which he politely declined and passed off to an Oilers staffer.

Down the hall at Little Caesars Arena, the Red Wings did their best to explain a loss where they had one of their best first periods, but then effectively parked the bus and let the defending Western Conference champions control all elements of the game in the third period.

After nine games the Red Wings and Oilers have identical 4-4-1 records with a .500 points percentage.

It’s actually the most common record in the league today, as of this writing seven of the 32 NHL teams have a 4-4-1 mark.

Of those seven teams only one, the Seattle Kraken, have goal differential that’s not in the negative.

It brings up an interesting conversation about where the Red Wings sit in the NHL landscape after nine games.

Are they a playoff contender, which their record indicates in the current state of the Eastern Conference? Or are they a bit of a shell corporation propped up by tremendous goaltending from Alex Lyon and Cam Talbot?

Like anything we discuss here, and in hockey in general, it probably falls somewhere in between.

Statistically speaking, Detroit is getting caved in when it comes to possession and shot attempts. At even strength Red Wings’ opponents have a 521-364 edge in shot attempts. According to Natural Stat Trick opponents have an 81-59 edge in high-danger chances. If expected goals are your jam, opponents have a 20.74-15.04 edge in that category.

It’s partially reflective of how the Red Wings have had to play and goes back to the roster that Steve Yzerman built. Detroit let goal scorers walk in free agency, like David Perron and Daniel Sprong, and went into this season with more of a philosophy of defending its way into the postseason.

That’s the team identity, turn defense into offense and in the process allow some young players — like Marco Kasper and Simon Edvinsson — grow into larger roles so they can be part of the long-term build.

It’s not a bad philosophy, but it’s only hindered by the team acceptance to effectively crater into a shell whenever they get a lead.

When the Red Wings survived with a 1-0 win against the New York Islanders earlier in the week, it was a clinic in clogging the zone after they took a 1-0 lead. Against the New Jersey Devils earlier this week Detroit looked lifeless at even strength, and effectively sat back until they were rescued by their power play and poor play from Devils goalie Jacob Markström.

And then on Sunday, against Edmonton, Detroit sat back and just absorbed punches from Edmonton in the third period when they had a 2-1 lead that eventually disappeared in an overtime loss.

Aside from Lucas Raymond, it’s hard to find a forward that was interested in turning defense into offense after the duo of Andrew Copp and JT Compher scored in the first two periods.

Which, for Detroit, brings up a conversation about whether that’s on the roster construction or instruction the roster is being given.

Do the Red Wings have to win this way? Or are they simply being told this is the only way to win by a coaching staff that’s over correcting after loose defense was the partially to blame for missing the playoffs last season.

Personally I don’t know the answer, and when it comes to protecting ranks the Red Wings players and coaches effectively keep those things in house. But when you talk to NHL scouts, like I do frequently during games, you get the feeling that the Red Wings are creating puzzles for themselves.

One scout I’ve spoken to looks at what’s happening with Vladimir Tarasenko right now, pointing out that it doesn’t look like the normally-offensive driven player has been given the green light to be himself on each and every shift.

That could be on the player, the scout admitted, but they also pointed out that Tarasenko in Florida was able to be himself even when playing for a defensive-minded coach in Paul Maurice.

In a way it reminds me of a softer version of when I covered the Dallas Stars and their change in organization philosophy.

The Stars were a high-flying offensive team during the 2015-16 NHL season, but lost to a grizzled and defensive-first St. Louis Blues team in the second round. The next season Dallas missed the playoffs and the Stars, with directive from the top, decided they had to get harder to play against and re-invested in Ken Hitchcock and then Jim Montgomery and Rick Bowness to play a style that effectively drained all life out of the building.

That style wore on the players, while the Stars went on a miracle bubble run with Bowness, they felt like they were stifled and one of the keys to Dallas back-to-back Western Conference Finals trips was the willingness of Pete DeBoer to allow players to play with some risk in their game.

Detroit, to me, decided to take some risk out of their game after last season. They did it with roster decisions — Jake Walman getting moved to San Jose, for example — and when it came to young players earning opportunity, it had to be those that had the defensive end locked down and mitigated risks.

When goalies are playing well, like they are in Detroit right now, this can work. A team can be annoyingly effective and could even make the playoffs this way, but it’s also abundantly clear in games against true contenders which one is playing to win and which one is playing not to lose.

And maybe that’s OK for now in Detroit, there’s never been a playoff game in Little Caesars Arena, and if the Red Wings avoid losing enough, maybe they’ll be above that cut line.

It’s working so far, surviving and parking the bus, but at some point the Red Wings will have to play with some risk in their game, because if the long-term plan is build a contender, that has to be part of the eventual identity.