Shap Shots Mailbag, Vol. 4
Thanks for the questions!
The mailbag is back, and this time I actually answered the questions.
My apologies about the prior botched one, a couple things happened that changed the scheduling at this publication.
Anywho, let’s dive in. The mailbag is free for all to read, but you can only drop a question in to get answered if you are a paid subscriber.
Two AHL related questions.
Why is success in the AHL not always the strongest predictor of success in the NHL? Is it a system/tactics thing, or something else? (Examples: Taro Hirose has always been great for the Grand Rapids Griffins, but it never translated to Red Wings success. Joel L'Esperance was a perennial points leader for the Texas Stars, but couldn't register much with Dallas.)
Separately, there was an article about John Tortorella letting his AHL coach in Lehigh run a different system than he does (https://phillyhockeynow.com/2022/10/07/philadelphia-flyers-john-tortorella-lappy-freedom-with-phantoms-system-cam-york-torts-ian-laperriere/). How uncommon is that? Is this the case in Grand Rapids vs Detroit, or Texas vs Dallas? If not, any minor differences to describe? (From Aaron Lee)
This is a great question, and the timing of this one is good too.
Last Friday, I drove out to Grand Rapids to catch up with both the Texas Stars and Grand Rapids Griffins for a couple of AHL stories that will be coming this week on the site.
AHL success can be a predictor of NHL success, but I think it has to come at a certain point in a player’s career. Shane Wright on his conditioning stint in the AHL was ripping up the league as a teenager, he will have NHL success.
Taro Hirose and Joel L’Esperance are AHL point producers, and are close to what I would call 4A players. They are good enough to play in the NHL, but they are essentially a replacement-level player in that league and it it requires either embracing a role and finding a coach and GM that gives you the chance to stick. It’s not just talent, it’s luck, too.
Luke Glendening is a perfect example of this. He built an entire NHL career by embracing the bottom-six role, finding a coach that trusted him, and that established him as an NHL player that other organizations could trust as well.
For me, AHL success has become the thing that gets you a look from an NHL GM or coach, but in most cases it’s not a great predictor of whether or not that player will actually seize the NHL opportunity or have it break his way.
On your second question, about NHL vs. AHL systems, some NHL coaches and GMs are more strict about wanting the AHL team to play the same system. Others are more lenient.
Detroit vs. Grand Rapids, for example, is kind of a hybrid. I’ve had players called up from Grand Rapids to Detroit tell me that the system is pretty close, but there are some tweaks here and there between what Ben Simon’s approach in Grand Rapids and Derek LaLonde’s approach in Detroit.
Often times this is a result of personnel, not coaching philosophy. Simon’s job in Grand Rapids is to develop talent and win games, so completely copying what LaLonde is doing in Detroit may not be the best way to check off that winning box based on his roster construction.
Other than more active defensemen on the attack and less dump and chase, what’s the difference between DeBoer’s system and what the Stars did the last couple seasons? (From Studer)
System wise you kind of nailed it.
The Stars defensemen are more actives a whole, all four lines have a prerogative to play with more possession, and the team is more aggressive than passive when playing with the lead.
I wouldn’t call this is a system change, and would more look at it as a mentality change. Rick Bowness was a coach that played more defensive hockey, but he also played “to the score” more often, as in the Stars approach would be more set by the current scoreboard than the actions itself.
Pete DeBoer’s approach is one that is more determined to play his way the entire game, no matter whether the Stars are winning or losing.
The other thing, and it’s important to remember this, the Stars roster is better than it was last season. It’s healthier, it has actual secondary-scorers, and John Klingberg’s departure has actually led to addition by subtraction with Miro Heiskanen taking another step without someone else to be in his way.
What’s going on with the whole Bally Sports thing? Sounded like things might be hitting a crisis point, but haven’t heard much since. (From Randomized)
They are still in a weird state of limbo. Things are moving, games are being covered, but Sinclair’s Diamond Sports group is still looking and, likely hoping, to sell the regional sports networks.
I’ve had a source tell me there are certain decisions on content that the networks can’t make right now, because when it comes to controlling costs, there is still a constant reminder that a sale could happen soon.
Let’s stick with that subject.
As younger generations increasingly eschew linear television packages, what do you see as the future of the regional sports model?
I’ve always considered the NFL to be savvy, having the majority of local games on free-to-air TV can only help cultivate the next generation of fans.
A few years ago, a number of NHL games were still available on local TV, for example TXA-21 in Dallas. Of course, regional sports networks have long since locked those rights up.
Do you see the league ever getting back to the model where at least some games are available for free, or has that ship sailed forever?
I realise that technically that was two questions, but technically this is two mailbags. So this is on you, Sean. ;) (From James R. Curry)
I don’t think the RSN is going anywhere, I just think the ownership is going to shift to eventually being a place where teams or leagues own the RSNs and are essentially shuffling money between their two properties.
The shift in ownership of the RSN in Washington to Monumental Sports Group, which owns the Capitals, is a good example of things to come. Same goes in New York, where the Rangers are under the same umbrella as their RSN, MSG Sports Network.
I don’t think you’ll get back to free over-the-air games on TV, the rights are too valuable, but I do think you could see a “freemium” approach where teams move to streaming control, where the game itself might be free, but you’ll be required to register for an account or something like that.
Why do some defenders not kill penalties? I can understand why some forwards wouldn't be "trained" for that, but how is a defenseman not a penalty killer? (From Tiffany VilchisParks)
All six defenders in an NHL lineup can kill penalties, and they all have at some point in their life.
A defender that doesn’t kill penalties at the NHL level is more of a coaching/usage decision than an ability one. Penalty killing takes energy and time, it’s also not that complicated for defenseman — killing penalties as a forward is actually more difficult in my view — so a defenseman that doesn’t kill penalties is either one of two things.
A big-minute player at five-on-five and the power play, who is having his minutes saved.
A player that isn’t trusted by the coach in the defensive zone, and his usage at even strength (where he’s deployed) will also typically be reflective of his lack of penalty killing minutes.
Do NHL Coaches have any life outside of hockey during the season?
How much have the Dallas Stars increased the use of analytics this season? (From Michael Tannery)
Not really.
They have grown their analytics department slightly, but it hasn’t changed much in how they approach things from one season to the last on a day-to-day basis.
A Stars question: November was amazing and Anaheim is a bad team. Without getting ahead of ourselves, what is a realistic goal total for the year for Jason Robertson?
A Jason question: Is there anything that Jack Edwards could say at this point that would get him fired? If so, what does it involve (politics, hate speech, etc.)? (From Jason)
The Dallas Stars record for goals in a season is 50, set by Mike Modano in 1993-94. The franchise record, including time in Minnesota, is 55.
I think Robertson breaks both records this season and flirts with 60 goals.
On the second question, I’m sure there’s something Jack Edwards could say to get fired. But I don’t really even want to imagine what it would have to be.
Hey Sean, do you think Patrick Kane gets traded this year? If so, what are the 3 most likely destinations? (From Chad Barber)
I think Patrick Kane gets traded before the deadline. I also think he ends up in the Eastern Conference, with one of three New York City-area teams.
Who picks the NHL’s stars of the week/month? (From Hannah)
The NHL marketing department.
Who do you think the stars could trade for defense I’ve been thinking like and Artem Zub for example (from Zach Rosen)
Zub got hurt this week and is out 2-3 weeks, which is a bummer for him.
I personally don’t see the Stars trading for a defenseman. I think Jim Nill is happy with his current setup on the blue line.
Can you please write about the devils 13 game win streak and your thoughts about the game that got away against Toronto that ended it? (From Nathan S(irst))
This question came in last week when the Devils were fresh off the 13-game win streak.
I’m not going to write about the loss to Toronto, but I do have this to say about the Devils.
They are good, they are a Stanley Cup contender, and frankly I think they are only going to get better. It reminds me a lot of the 2015-16 Dallas Stars, and I wrote about that comparison here.
But unlike the 2015-16 Stars, I think the Devils are built for playoff hockey’s defensive struggles as well.
It’s a good time if you are a Devils fan.
Hi Sean, hope you and your family had an excellent Thanksgiving.
When the Stars were bidding to host to Winter Classic, was the focus always on having it at the Cotton Bowl? Were there any other venues discussed or possibly in the running?
As an aside, I seem to remember rumors about the Stars being involved in a Stadium Series game around 2014 or 2015. I was in high school then and things are a little fuzzy, but was that ever a consideration? (From Alexander Posani)
Before the Stars landed the Winter Classic they had been bidding for a Stadium Series game at AT&T Stadium (aka Jerryworld).
The league considered it, so did the Stars, but in the end it’s not an outdoor venue. The Stars were also well aware that they likely weren’t going to get more than one game like that, so the focus shifted to the Cotton Bowl, and it was actually the league that saw that idea and felt it was a strong Winter Classic option as opposed to just being a Stadium Series game.