Shap Shots Mailbag, Vol 6

You asked questions, I tried to answer them.

Of all the biggest deadline sellers (Arizona, Chicago, San Jose, Anaheim, etc), who do you think breaks in the market first? Coyotes GM Bill Armstrong was on PHNX Sports saying "teams don't know what they're doing" about the trade market so I'm just curious if this trade deadline is the banger we should expect, or could be a potential dud (From David)

I personally get the feeling it’s teetering on a fine line right now. One or two things happen, and we have the fallout of a major, memorable deadline season. Some of those things don’t happen, and it becomes a mundane and flops into dud territory.

Right now, I would feel confident saying the Stanley Cup champion will come from this group of eight teams.

That’s not a slight against Colorado, and if they jump into this fray it would be understandable, but it’s very difficult to repeat and the injuries — even if they get fully healthy for playoff time — are holding them back from getting the necessary “cruise time” teams need over the final 10 to 15 games of the regular season.

Those eight teams can win the cup with their current roster, it’s going to take one of these eight teams to make an early move to push the others into reactionary moves.

And I’m talking about big moves — not the third-line depth guy we like because we want vet savvy in June.

Vancouver can help put things in motion here, if they trade JT Miller or Bo Horvat to one of these eight teams, others will react. If he gets traded to a team like Seattle, it adds another cup contender, but it doesn’t change the top-dog arms race in my mind.

With Larkin talks and Bo Horvat rumors heating up, what would your trade package from Detroit look like to acquire Horvat assuming he is open to signing. (From the Grind Line Podcast)

This is the type of thing Detroit should be looking into. I also think from a Red Wings perspective that getting Horvat to sign is much easier sell if Larkin is also signed.

I know there’s been some public posturing lately on the Larkin vs. Wings front, but in the end this feels like a deal that will be hammered out with an eight-year term worth $8.5 million AAV.

To compete in the Eastern Conference, the Wings need Larkin to be part of a 1-2 punch at center, and Horvat would fill that role.

So let’s work out a fair trade… using the working frame work of three viable, younger NHL players, and a top prospect. Also this must be done assuming an extension is in place already for Horvat in Detroit.

It starts with Jonatan Berggren, Gustav Lindstrom, and Elmer Soderblom heading to Vancouver. If the Canucks love Michael Rasmussen or Joe Veleno over one of those guys, you can slide them into the package instead.

Then it comes to the prospect space, and if I’m Detroit, I’m willing to part with any prospect outside of Simon Edvinsson and Marco Kasper to make the deal.

Yes, it’s a lot to give up. And to be clear this must come with promise of an extension, but it’s also selling early on potential for four players to get the viable 1-2 center combination that can actually win a Stanley Cup.

What do you make of the Bruins season so far? Are there any signs that their schedule has been more favorable relative to league average? No way Ullmark can continue at his current pace, right? (From Bing)

The Bruins are a juggernaut. I’m actually in Tampa this week and looking forward to watching Bruins-Lightning tonight.

The fact they’ve been this successful in the ridiculously good Eastern Conference is even more of a testament that we are looking at potentially one of the better teams of all time.

Seriously. If this team continues it’s current pace and then rolls through the playoffs, you have to crown them as one of the greatest teams of all time.

As far as Linus Ullmark goes, he’s played 30 games so far, let’s see how he holds up after the 40 and 50 start threshold. I think those are the benchmarks a goalie has to clear for the proper consistency label.

You hinted at this in your Stars v. Buffalo piece but can you explain in more detail why contracts result in Suter not sitting? I've come to accept that as a part of the team but don't "actually get it" in terms of the contracts. (From Erin)

Great question.

For starters, the Stars disagree that Ryan Suter has been bad. Do with that as you wish, but the Stars internal dialogue is different than the fan discourse.

As far as contracts making jobs, it works this way:

When a GM makes a high-profile signing, one with big money and term, that player is going to play. That player getting scratched is more of an indictment on the GM and coach than the player, so to protect egos, big contract players don’t sit unless it’s an extreme situation — teams don’t want to admit failure.

So in the case of Suter, even if the Stars felt he was struggling, he’s going to play barring an extreme situation. Joel Hanley and Nils Lundvist are still (and Hanley will always be) in the part of their career where they are viable scratch, Suter is going to play as long as he’s here.

If winning the cup is the goal and we all know it’s a multi year process. Explain the hesitancy with scratching veterans when the upside is with a younger player. Of course, the cap does come into play yet focus on the question and not the “cap”. Is a useless excuse (for Michael)

Because coaches make the decisions, and the job of a coach is to win now as opposed to in a couple years.

I’m not saying it’s the right line of thinking, but it’s the reality. Coaches have to win to keep their jobs, most believe in order to win now they have to trust veteran players.

The NHL trade deadline will be here before you know it. The Stars have limited cap space to make an impactful deal. Do you think they will try to do something meaningful? And would they consider moving either Johnston or Stankoven if the potential return is someone like Timo Meier, a 26 year old, point-per-game forward on a reasonable contract? (From DrewL)

The Stars will likely have about $2.8 million in deadline cap space, which is a decent amount of flexibility they’ve built up by being smart with sending waiver-exempt forwards back-and-forth when possible this season.

I think the Stars will look at some things, but my gut at the end tells me Jim Nill isn’t going to make much of a move — remember this is a gut feel, not an actual report.

But consider the facts that Nill already spent a first-round pick in the summer to get Nils Lunkdvist, and when Nill does that he has to be blown away by the next opportunity because he’s an asset hoarder.

Even if the return was Timo Meier, I don’t think Nill would be interested in moving Wyatt Johnston or Logan Stankoven. Both are part of Nill’s long and short-term plan.

Thoughts on Mason Marchment so far. The last few games I have zeroed in on his shifts and have come away disappointed. Passes clank off his stick, poor puck possession, and limited finishing ability. Minus 2 on the year with only 9 goals and less than half a point a game. (From Buckcasey)

There have been two Mason Marchments this season.

In his first 30 games Marchment had 30 points (9 goals, 9 assists), was averaging 2.43 shots per game, and was shooting at a clip of 12.5 percent.

Since then, in 20 games, Marchment has 4 points (all assists), is averaging 2.21 shots per game, and is shooting zero percent.

Watching him play now, and smart of you to isolate on his shifts, he’s lacking confidence and he’s frustrated. You can see it in his play, and I think the worry about getting that goal drought ended has taken away from the other physical all-around elements of his game.

I think the true Mason Marchment is somewhere in between the first 30-game Marchment and the last 20-game Marchment. He should be a 50-point player.

The other thing to remember with Marchment is he’s never played more than 54 games in an NHL season — blame COVID weirdness — so he’s almost having to fight through an NHL rookie wall in his third NHL season.

In the seven games that Tyler Seguin slotted in for an injured Rope Hintz, Seguin scored 5 goals and added 3 assists. Robertson (3+4) and Pavelski (2+4) maintained their productivity during this stretch.

When Hintz rejoined the lineup against the Sabres centering Marchment and Gurianov, that trio put together a few moments of near brilliance (e.g. at 14:35, 11:10, 10:55 in the 2nd period), along with some impressive individual efforts from Gurianov (at 18:55 and 9:00 in the 3rd).

My question is: Do you think it's worth considering keeping the 21, 91, 16 / 34, 24, 27 lines together at even strength in an effort to sustain Seguin's performance and brew some chemistry to elevate Gurianov and Marchment's level of play and develop more depth scoring potential? (Matt)

David Castillo wrote a pretty good piece on this for D Magazine that I would suggest reading.

As for my answer, I think it’s worth exploring. But I personally need to see something more from Marchment and Gurianov rather soon for that to stick.

I like when Hintz builds off the simple plays that Robertson and Pavelski make in transition. I feel like when he’s with Gurianov and Marchment, at least right now, he has to do a bit too much himself and has to go into “hero mode.”

If Marchment and Gurianov can build off of and with Hintz, I’m all for keeping Seguin up top and with Pavelski and Robertson.

Klingberg? Is he destined for free agency again? (From CookingWithTheresa)

I think so.

I think John Klingberg will get moved at the trade deadline, the Anaheim Ducks will recoup a draft pick for his services, and then he’ll go back to market in the summer because the contending team that added him won’t have the space for his contract wants and desires — deserved or not.

Have you considered doing Tottenham related content for your substack? I would love to hear some your thoughts about Spurs. (From Evan)

Hmmm… you’ve got me thinking… if people are requesting it, I may have to. Maybe as part of a grab bag style piece or something.

And on a more (or perhaps less?) serious note, if you had to equate the Stars this year to a premier league club, which would you pick as their comparable? (From Hannah)

Thank you, Hannah.

The Stars this year are similar to Newcastle. Team that before the season you thought might be capable of something, but you really didn’t expect them to be top-3 team in the league in January.

Newcastle is just lucky Premier League games end in regulation, because if they were truly like the Stars their nine draws would have been turned into OT losses.