The Predators are on on fire and Roman Josi has altered his game in Andrew Brunette's system
A look at what's happening with the Predators and their captain this season.
I originally turned off the Nashville Predators game last night against the Vegas Golden Knights.
It was 3-0 at the end of the first period, and honestly, it felt like an unceremonious end to one of the NHL’s best point streaks.
But when the Predators rallied in the period to comeback from down 4-1 to tie it at 4-4, I naturally went back to the game and watched the last five minutes of regulation and overtime.
And then in overtime, the Predators converted on a pretty three-man weave to extend their point streak to 18 games and continue their surge up the Western Conference standings.
Nashville is now just as close to winning the Presidents’ Trophy as it is to missing the playoffs. Think about that.
Also consider the following.
On Feb. 15, the Predators were hammered by the Dallas Stars 9-2 and famously had their U2 concert trip cancelled.
At that point the Predators had a minus-15 goal differential and were four points behind the St. Louis Blues for the second wild-card spot. Since that date the Predators have gone 16-0-2 and have a plus-42 goal differential during that time.
Nashville’s overall goal differential (plus-26) ranks 12th in the league this season, despite ranking 25th in the league less than a month ago.
And Tuesday, against Vegas, felt like a nice exclamation point. While everyone worries about getting Vegas in the first-round as a wild card, the Predators might be one of the closest things we’ve seen to the 2012 or 2014 Los Angeles Kings.
The game-winning goal against Vegas was also a nice exclamation point for Predators captain Roman Josi.
Since Jan. 1, Josi has 44 points (11 goals, 33 assists) in 35 games. He’s plus-16 during that span and has four game-winning goals, including the OT winner last night.
For October through December, Josi had 29 points (8 goals, 21 assists) in 37 games. He was plus-3 and had one game-winning goal.
Josi was always good, but over the past three months he’s altered the Norris Trophy conversation in my mind and, honestly, should probably at least be mentioned in the Hart Trophy conversation.
During the Predator’s 18-game heater, Josi has 24 points (8 goals, 16 assists) and he’s plus-22.
This all reminded me of a conversation I had with Predators coach Andrew Brunette in late December, the one that led to this piece about his quest for hockey’s version of Total Football.
In that conversation we also talked at length about Josi and how the long-time captain had to adjust to Brunette’s system.
“You know it’s been a little bit of a hard transition for him,” Brunette said. “I think he was used to lugging the puck all the time, and we wanted the puck to move faster than the player. It was me taking some of that initial creativity away from him in full-ice scenarios. It’s different than he’s used to, and he’s been uncomfortable with at it times. And that’s a curve we’ve had to realize we put on him. But I think it also gives him an ability to creative in other ways now joining the rush and not just the carrier himself.”
Ok, let’s look at some data…
Using InStat, which tracks puck touches per game, here are Josi’s average puck touches for the past five seasons.
Josi still handles the puck a lot, but looking at both the data and watching games — remember I spent nearly a decade in the Central Division, I’ve watched Josi a ton in person — he spends more time creating space than demanding possession this season.
Now let’s look at how that lines up on entries and exits, again using InStat.
Here are Josi’s zone entries for the past three seasons.
On entries, Josi is actually carrying the puck more than he did before, although it is at a similar rate to his past couple seasons.
But let’s look at the exits.
When it comes to exiting the defensive zone, Josi is now passing on 72 percent of his exits. A jump of nearly seven percent from last season.
This is interesting, because Josi is passing more to get out of the zone, but carrying the puck more to get over the offensive blue line.
I brought this up to an NHL scout via text on Wednesday, who tends to be a bit more open to answering my wormhole questions about data and such.
“To me that would say he’s getting the puck back more in the neutral zone,” they said. “Probably something to that.”
It also lines up with what Brunette told me his ideal vision is for the predators.
Using soccer terms, it lines up with how Brunette told me how he viewed Josi could be like a central midfielder. Someone who creates give-and-go opportunities by reading off his forwards in the attack.
Something to keep an eye on as the Predators continue this streak and head into the postseason.
Back in 2019 the Predators finished on top of a highly competitive Central Division and had a date in the first round with the Wild Card Stars, only to fall flat against a superb Ben Bishop and a spirited team to lose the series in six games.
Five years later I have nightmares that the scenario would be reversed, that the Stars can finish atop a highly competitive Central Division and have a date in the first round with the Wild Card Predators, and well you can finish the thought from here.